Canada at the Summer Olympics

(updated on Saturday August 5th)
The Canadian Olympic Committee wants Canada to finish 12th in the medal standings, this is I think unrealistic given our past performance.  In the last six games before London Canada has been reasonably consistent in where it finished in the medal rankings.

Games        Ranking G  S  B total athletes
2012 London    21st  1  3  6  10    277
2008 Beijing   19th  3  9  6  18    332
2004 Athens    21st  3  6  3  12    263
2000 Sydney    24th  3  3  8  14    294
1996 Atlanta   21st  3 11  8  22    303
1992 Barcelona 11th  7  4  7  18    295
1988 Seoul     19th  3  2  5  10    328
Canada has a smaller team in London than average. 

Based on past Olympics Canada should win 3-4 gold, 5-6 silver and 6-7 bronze for a total of 15-16 medals.  Canada should finish the games in about 20th overall.

For Canada to finish 12th overall it would have to win 6 to 8 gold medals, something that is simply not realistic.   Since 1988 the Canadian results at the summer games have been reasonably consistent.

If we look at total medals it has been better for Canada since 1996 than ranking by gold medals.
2012 11th (+10)
2008 15th (+4)
2004 19th (+2)
2000 18th (+6)
1996 11th (+10)
1992 15th (-4)
1988 19th (+-0)

A dubious honour for the country that the nation does better coming second and third than first.

Historically Canada did much better at the summer games than the winter games.   From 1924 to 1976 Canada won 11 golds, 7 silver and 14 bronze at the winter games, 6 of those gold were in hockey.  In the summer games over the same time 12  golds, 32 silver, and 37 bronze.

Since 1988 this has changed.
        G  S  B  Total 
Summer  22 35 42  99
Winter  39 36 32 107

Even more impressive is when you keep in mind that Canada has had smaller teams at the winter games

Games            Ranking  G   S  B Total Athletes
2010 Vancouver      1st   14  7  5  26   206
2006 Turin          5th    7 10  7  24   196
2002 Salt Lake City 4th    7  3  7  17   150 
1998 Nagano         4th    6  5  4  15   144
1994 Lillehammer    7th    3  6  4  13    95
1992 Albertville    9th    2  3  2   7   108
1988 Calgary       13th    0  2  3   5   112


At the winter games you can see a very clear improvement trajectory over the last 24 years